Essentially, the bias states: after an event has occurred, people tend to have seen it as predictable, despite there being little objective information to have made such a conclusion originally.
If the “hindsight bias” name weren’t already so established, it should’ve been called “That Thing Fathers Do” bias. And here, the participants ascribed an overestimated probability to the events that had actually happened. The President was heading to both Beijing and Moscow at the time, and researchers asked participants to estimate the likelihood of possible outcomes from the visit.Ī bit of time after Nixon returned to the states, the original participants were corralled and asked to recall their probability estimates for the various outcomes.
Now, if I weren’t so versed in the phenomena of social psychology, I would be tempted to say, “Yeah, I figured there would be an emotion question that’s why I practiced it.” However, I am very much aware of the hindsight bias and our tendency for misremembering.įor example, one of the first papers to demonstrate the hindsight bias was done during the Nixon era. That is, one of the questions asked us to define an emotion, and as you know, dear reader, that was exactly what I did in the previous post. However, one of the reasons I feel confident in my performance was that I had unintentionally practiced one of the actual questions from the test. I had four measly hours to complete six grisly questions, and, overall, I think I did pretty well (except for the part where I accidentally jettisoned my energy drink all over my monitor and keyboard). Last Friday, I completed the first part of my candidacy exam. It’s easy to play the hand after the cards have been dealt.
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